Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:43:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9A 0x9ac1…fbaa other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$10 (-4%) realized −$2 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 51% +$3
other 27% −$2
finance 14% −$7
crypto 4% −$5
politics 3% −$1
sports 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -16.3% -24.3% 67% 11% -10.7%
≤30d 13 -18.3% -26.1% 62% 8% -12.7%
≤90d 13 -18.3% -26.1% 62% 8% -12.7%
all 13 -18.3% -26.1% 62% 8% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 8% -12.7%
10% -33.2% 8% -21.0%
15% -39.6% 8% -28.7%
20% -45.5% 0% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage12d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? Up 50¢ 24¢ $15 $7 −$8 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 26 $40 +$1 +2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $9 +$1 +7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $20 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 23 $40 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra Jun 22 $47 +$2 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 19 $7 −$1 -9%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $8 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 37¢ $4 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 39¢ $4 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $41 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 73¢ $7 16h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? SELL Down 37¢ $2 16h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 27¢ $1 16h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 93¢ $9 17h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 87¢ $9 17h
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY No 87¢ $18 18h
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY No 87¢ $9 18h
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY No 87¢ $9 18h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? SELL Up 100¢ $20 18h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 98¢ $20 25h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 97¢ $40 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on SELL No 100¢ $40 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY No 99¢ $40 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra SELL No 99¢ $50 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 5d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $5 6d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $6 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 7d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $3 7d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 7d
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY No 95¢ $47 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $8 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.65 · official $41.65 (match) · 35 history records