Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:23:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9ac1…d0a7 other 10 markets active 6d ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$84 (-22%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$96
crypto 4% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-52.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +36.3% +23.3% 50% 50% +23.7%
≤30d 10 -47.3% -52.3% 30% 30% -30.1%
≤90d 10 -47.3% -52.3% 30% 30% -30.1%
all 10 -47.3% -52.3% 30% 30% -30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.3% 30% -30.1%
10% -56.9% 20% -36.8%
15% -61.0% 20% -42.9%
20% -64.9% 10% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$22 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage6d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 +$10 +73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 $0 -1%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 15 $101 +$11 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $13 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 65¢ $13 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 9d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 9d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 9d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 10d
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 10d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 10d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? SELL No 94¢ $112 11d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $101 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records