Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:50:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9A 0x9ac1…d5a6 sports 364 markets active 2h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$4,254 (+22%) realized +$4,267 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%173W / 189L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$244est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$480now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$135
7 days−$318
14 days+$345
30 days+$2,310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$4,057
other 0% −$58
crypto 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -4.5% -13.6% 40% 40% -19.8%
≤30d 51 +13.7% +2.9% 53% 53% +15.0%
≤90d 208 -29.6% -36.3% 29% 29% +5.9%
all 362 +13.8% +2.9% 48% 48% +10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 48% +10.2%
10% -6.9% 46% -0.4%
15% -15.9% 44% -10.0%
20% -24.1% 39% -18.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +53% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$31 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$480
Realized+$4,267
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses173 / 189
Est. fees paid−$244
Open positions2
Markets (closed)362 / 364
History coverage191d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 362 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 29¢ 28¢ $290 $285 −$5 (-2%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings Minnesota Lynx 61¢ 58¢ $203 $195 −$8 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Indiana Fever Jun 28 $207 −$180 -87%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 27 $208 −$206 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 27 $249 +$251 +101%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 26 $212 −$210 -99%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 26 $40 −$40 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky Jun 26 $161 −$161 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm Jun 26 $210 +$181 +86%
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 26 $192 −$116 -60%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 26 $304 +$296 +97%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics Jun 25 $155 +$67 +43%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 25 $285 −$227 -80%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Jun 23 $304 +$205 +67%
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 22 $244 −$244 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 22 $24 +$86 +365%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $455 −$118 -26%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 20 $127 +$73 +57%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $320 +$235 +73%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $284 +$216 +76%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 18 $93 −$93 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 18 $119 −$119 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $135 +$65 +48%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $199 +$119 +60%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $222 +$310 +140%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $260 +$990 +381%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $408 +$703 +172%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $73 +$27 +38%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $182 −$182 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $159 +$63 +40%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $137 +$113 +83%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $153 +$47 +31%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $150 +$50 +33%
Toronto Tempo vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 08 $79 −$68 -86%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 08 $229 −$145 -63%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 08 $90 −$90 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 08 $158 −$137 -86%
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire Jun 08 $52 −$52 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 08 $316 −$95 -30%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 08 $113 −$78 -69%
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 08 $39 −$39 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 08 $23 −$23 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 08 $139 −$88 -63%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 06 $84 +$66 +79%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $101 +$199 +197%
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky Jun 06 $106 +$44 +42%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $68 +$42 +62%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $183 +$317 +172%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 02 $62 +$40 +65%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $167 +$133 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 29¢ $296 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings BUY Minnesota Lynx 61¢ $206 1h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Indiana Fever SELL Los Angeles Sparks 4¢ $27 15h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Indiana Fever BUY Los Angeles Sparks 29¢ $207 17h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 69¢ $174 26h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 68¢ $33 26h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 49¢ $249 2d
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 63¢ $212 2d
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 53¢ $203 2d
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 46¢ $7 2d
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL Dallas Wings 14¢ $74 2d
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL Dallas Wings 17¢ $2 2d
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL Dallas Wings 17¢ $0 2d
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Dallas Wings 34¢ $192 2d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 50¢ $304 2d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 52¢ $40 3d
PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky BUY PortlandFire 24¢ $161 3d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics BUY Minnesota Lynx 70¢ $13 3d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics BUY Minnesota Lynx 70¢ $14 3d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics BUY Minnesota Lynx 70¢ $13 3d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics BUY Minnesota Lynx 70¢ $4 3d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics BUY Minnesota Lynx 70¢ $35 3d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics BUY Minnesota Lynx 70¢ $35 3d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics BUY Minnesota Lynx 70¢ $35 3d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics BUY Minnesota Lynx 70¢ $7 3d
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Dallas Wings 75¢ $109 5d
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Dallas Wings 55¢ $304 5d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever SELL Phoenix Mercury 16¢ $58 5d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Phoenix Mercury 60¢ $205 5d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Phoenix Mercury 60¢ $36 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $479.70 · official $479.81 (match) · 901 history records