Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:15:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

9A 0x9ac5…14d2 sports 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$1,348 (+24%) realized +$1,360 · open −$12

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip

Net edge+1%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate36%10W / 18L

Drawdown38%max

Avg bet$139per market

Trades / day8.8pace

Fees−$86est.

Kalshi-fit78%portable

Net worth$308now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)+9.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	28	+21.5%	+9.9%	36%	36%	+18.3%
≤30d	28	+21.5%	+9.9%	36%	36%	+18.3%
≤90d	28	+21.5%	+9.9%	36%	36%	+18.3%
all	28	+21.5%	+9.9%	36%	36%	+18.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.8 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+9.9%	36%	+18.3%
10%	-0.6%	36%	+7.0%
15%	-10.2%	36%	-3.4%
20%	-19.0%	36%	-12.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +21% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +57% → late -14% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$287 vs −$87 · ×3.29 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$308

Realized+$1,360

Unrealized−$12

Win rate (resolved)36%

Wins / losses10 / 18

Est. fees paid−$86

Open positions2

Markets (closed)28 / 40

History coverage6d

Avg bet$139

Trades / day8.8

Drawdown38%

Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 28 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	Over	47¢	44¢	$300	$287	−$13 (-4%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain?	Yes	6¢	7¢	$20	$22	+$2 (+10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$49	−$48	-98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5	Jun 26	$526	+$552	+105%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5	Jun 25	$548	+$369	+67%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5	Jun 24	$363	+$391	+108%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5	Jun 24	$101	−$100	-99%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Ghana?	Jun 23	$21	−$20	-97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 23	$204	−$200	-98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Jun 23	$146	+$166	+114%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$296	+$299	+101%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)	Jun 23	$182	−$179	-98%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 3 Algeria?	Jun 23	$21	−$20	-97%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5	Jun 23	$102	−$100	-98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$281	+$320	+114%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$195	−$193	-99%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Iraq?	Jun 22	$21	−$20	-97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$102	−$100	-98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5	Jun 22	$102	−$102	-100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5	Jun 22	$102	−$102	-100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt?	Jun 22	$21	+$232	+1127%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5	Jun 22	$138	−$138	-100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$203	+$180	+89%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 22	$67	+$229	+344%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5	Jun 21	$102	−$100	-98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5	Jun 21	$20	−$20	-98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$101	−$100	-99%
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	Jun 21	$102	+$136	+134%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan?	Jun 21	$31	−$30	-97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$107	−$2	-2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	44¢	$102	15m
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain?	BUY Yes	6¢	$21	15m
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$203	1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Norway vs. Fr	BUY	1¢	$20	12h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Norway vs. Fr	BUY	2¢	$50	12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	17¢	$49	24h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	100¢	$1,078	24h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	48¢	$526	26h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5	BUY	27¢	$186	29h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY	30¢	$204	2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5	SELL Over	100¢	$917	2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	59¢	$548	2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-2.5)	BUY	16¢	$205	2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	38¢	$161	2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	54¢	$101	2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	59¢	$202	2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Switzerland vs. C	BUY	5¢	$21	2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Ghana?	BUY Yes	2¢	$21	3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	27¢	$204	3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	SELL Portugal	100¢	$313	3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Portugal	46¢	$146	3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Portugal vs	BUY	3¢	$51	3d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$296	3d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)	BUY Algeria	40¢	$182	3d
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 3 Algeria?	BUY Yes	3¢	$21	3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	36¢	$102	3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$601	3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	46¢	$281	4d
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	56¢	$195	4d
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Iraq?	BUY Yes	2¢	$21	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $308.47 · official $373.41 · 59 history records