Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:18:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9A
0x9ac7…6868
other · 12 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$168 +37%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$51 · open +$197
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$396
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$197
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage47d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 3 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$18
14 days−$51
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 37¢ 88¢ $150 $355 +$205 (+137%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-5%)
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Yes 60¢ 33¢ $14 $8 −$6 (-46%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Felix Auger-Aliassime 40¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Joao Fonseca 38¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$16 +107%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 +$8 +75%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$4 +41%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $16 −$15 -96%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $36 −$28 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 77% +$207
sports 17% −$51
crypto 6% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 51m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 24h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 28h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $10 45h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 60¢ $14 5d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 49¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 9d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 40¢ $20 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca SELL Joao Fonseca 30¢ $6 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca SELL Joao Fonseca 30¢ $1 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 35¢ $10 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 39¢ $25 11d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $46 35d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $24 35d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 44¢ $22 40d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $18 41d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $0 42d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $3 42d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $0 42d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 41¢ $3 42d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 42d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 42d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 41¢ $7 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +31.2% +18.7% 75% 75% +26.7%
≤30d 9 -26.0% -33.0% 44% 44% -44.5%
≤90d 9 -26.0% -33.0% 44% 44% -44.5%
all 9 -26.0% -33.0% 44% 44% -44.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.0% 44% -44.5%
10% -39.5% 44% -49.8%
15% -45.3% 44% -54.7%
20% -50.7% 22% -59.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $395.55 · official $395.55 (match) · 57 history records