Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:52:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9acd…a3fe other 706 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,339 (-2%) realized −$2,188 · open −$151
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate90%581W / 62L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$9,185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$2,615
14 days−$2,466
30 days−$2,121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$3,324
politics 23% +$195
weather 1% +$17
crypto 1% −$6
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -5.2% -14.2% 86% 0% -24.5%
≤30d 313 -0.5% -10.0% 91% 0% -12.6%
≤90d 643 -1.2% -10.6% 90% 1% -12.0%
all 643 -1.2% -10.6% 90% 1% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 1% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 0% -20.4%
15% -27.0% 0% -28.1%
20% -34.1% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$79 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$9,185
Realized−$2,188
Unrealized−$151
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses581 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions63
Markets (closed)643 / 706
History coverage90d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 63 History 643 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $571 $574 +$4 (+1%)
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $464 $465 +$1 (+0%)
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $458 $464 +$6 (+1%)
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 85¢ 99¢ $342 $398 +$56 (+16%)
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $361 $364 +$3 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $355 $358 +$3 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $352 $355 +$3 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $347 $350 +$3 (+1%)
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $317 $319 +$2 (+1%)
Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 97¢ $313 $305 −$7 (-2%)
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $289 $292 +$3 (+1%)
Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $259 $261 +$2 (+1%)
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $256 $259 +$2 (+1%)
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $256 $259 +$2 (+1%)
Will NYC Mayor post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $253 $255 +$3 (+1%)
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 79¢ $288 $230 −$58 (-20%)
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 95¢ $232 $223 −$9 (-4%)
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $211 $211 +$1 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 94¢ $203 $194 −$9 (-5%)
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $185 $186 +$2 (+1%)
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $170 $171 +$2 (+1%)
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $161 $163 +$1 (+1%)
Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $156 $158 +$2 (+1%)
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $152 $154 +$1 (+1%)
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $151 $152 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $564 +$4 +1%
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $359 +$3 +1%
Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 2 Jun 18 $145 +$3 +2%
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $42 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23 Jun 17 $104 +$1 +1%
Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $371 +$2 +1%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $147 +$1 +1%
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $193 +$11 +6%
Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $44 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 16 $48 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $93 +$1 +1%
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $239 +$1 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $234 +$2 +1%
Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $224 +$1 +0%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $58 +$1 +1%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $52 $0 +1%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $134 +$1 +1%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $38 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 16 $17 $0 +1%
Will NYC Mayor post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $109 +$1 +1%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 16 $44 $0 +1%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 16 $44 $0 +1%
Will NYC Mayor post 100-119 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $233 −$4 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 16 $128 +$2 +1%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 16 $44 $0 +1%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 16 $43 $0 +1%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $86 +$1 +1%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $109 +$1 +1%
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $113 +$1 +1%
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $219 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 1 Jun 15 $406 +$4 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,760 −$2,760 -100%
Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $44 −$5 -11%
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $359 +$3 +1%
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $157 +$2 +1%
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $46 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,076 +$119 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $490 −$21 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $223 −$4 -2%
Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $100 −$27 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $916 +$6 +1%
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $269 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 1m
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 2m
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 2m
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 2m
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 2m
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 2m
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 2m
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 2m
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 2m
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 3m
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 3m
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 3m
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 3m
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 3m
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $183 7m
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 8m
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $124 13m
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $76 16m
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 19 to June 2 BUY No 99¢ $99 29m
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 34m
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 36m
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 37m
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 37m
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 38m
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 19 to June 2 BUY No 99¢ $99 40m
Will White House post 80-99 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 40m
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 19 to June 26 BUY No 99¢ $5 41m
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 19 to June 2 BUY No 99¢ $5 41m
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 41m
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $32 43m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,185.20 · official $9,185.21 (match) · 2643 history records