Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:43:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9ace…0f16 crypto 854 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d only
✗ bot/MM pace (398 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,959 (-57%) realized −$1,960 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%463W / 399L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day398.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$435
14 days−$418
30 days−$418
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$396
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (398 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 842 +3.6% -6.3% 53% 50% -21.1%
≤30d 862 +4.1% -5.8% 54% 50% -20.5%
≤90d 862 +4.1% -5.8% 54% 50% -20.5%
all 862 +4.1% -5.8% 54% 50% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover398.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 50% -20.5%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 44% -28.1%
15% -23.0% 40% -35.1%
20% -30.6% 38% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$1,960
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses463 / 399
Open positions1
Markets (closed)862 / 854
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day398.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 862 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 74¢ 96¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 139 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$12 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.57 · official $2.38 (match) · 3500 history records