Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:47:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9ace…d852 politics 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 664d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 78L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% −$12
other 22% −$4
economics 11% −$2
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
all 79 -0.4% -9.9% 1% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

664d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)79 / 79
History coverage664d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 79 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $50 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $51 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $52 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $52 $0 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $52 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 08 $52 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 03 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 26 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 05 $49 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Roger W. Ferguson Jr. as next Fed Chair in 2025? Nov 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will AZ Alkmaar win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Brighton & Hove Albion wins the Premier League? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Travis Kelce be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alvin Kamara be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Puka Nacua be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Eagles win the NFC Championship? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Georgia win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Fury beat Usyk? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mark Andrews be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Another actor announced as next James Bond actor? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
TikTok banned in the US in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jack Bergman be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 11 Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Brian Thomas Jr. win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Dec 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk be the next President of Poland? Dec 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during his inauguration speech? Dec 19 $1 $0 -3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after December 2024 meeting? Dec 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dynamo Kyiv win the UEFA Europa League? Dec 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will C.J. Stroud be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the Western Conference? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the Eastern Conference? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will 'Metaphor: ReFantazio' win Game of the Year? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2024 NBA Cup? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Tottenham Hotspur win the UEFA Europa League? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Anthony Davis win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Jalen Duren lead the NBA in Rebounds? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Evan Mobley win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Hunter Biden sentenced to 4-10 years in gun case? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Hunter Biden fined over 100k in gun case? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Oklahoma win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $50 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $50 15h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 22d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 22d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 22d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 22d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $0 22d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 36d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $50 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $50 40d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $51 67d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $51 67d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $51 73d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $36 74d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $15 74d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 85d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 86d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $51 89d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 91d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 98d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 99d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 99d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 100d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 102d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 102d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $52 108d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $52 109d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 113d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $30 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 183 history records