Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:21:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9A 0x9ad0…be1d weather 1127 markets active 0h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$513 (+2%) realized +$510 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate19%183W / 767L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$503now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$582
7 days+$569
14 days+$1,196
30 days+$1,624
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$412
weather 27% +$403
other 10% +$1,041
sports 7% +$327
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +3.4% -6.4% 58% 42% -5.2%
≤30d 690 +22.2% +10.5% 22% 20% -1.4%
≤90d 946 +6.4% -3.7% 19% 17% -3.8%
all 950 +7.0% -3.2% 19% 18% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 18% -3.3%
10% -12.5% 17% -12.6%
15% -20.9% 16% -21.0%
20% -28.7% 15% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$8 · ×5.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$503
Realized+$510
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses183 / 767
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions8
Markets (closed)950 / 1127
History coverage167d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 950 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $50 $68 +$18 (+36%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-8%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 492 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $1,221 −$223 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $511 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $407 −$67 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $408 −$56 -14%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $204 +$284 +140%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 +$205 +101%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $304 +$191 +63%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $304 +$203 +67%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $203 +$114 +56%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $510 −$28 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $303 +$55 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $304 +$63 +21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $915 −$265 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $404 −$101 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $509 −$70 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $308 +$34 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$23 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $105 +$45 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $105 +$74 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $300 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $105 −$37 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $772 +$105 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $406 +$24 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $328 −$11 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $302 +$31 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $130 +$20 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $204 +$85 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $104 +$138 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $104 −$23 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $106 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$37 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $109 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$7 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$232 +114%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $303 +$132 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 09 $206 −$124 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $104 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 09 $156 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $208 +$110 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $131 −$42 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $304 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $302 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $302 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $302 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $315 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $302 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $184 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $105 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $302 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $303 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 2h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 12h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 94¢ $408 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $495 12h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 46¢ $203 12h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $507 13h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $304 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $304 14h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 24¢ $31 15h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 89¢ $317 17h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $203 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $102 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $503.30 · official $503.30 (match) · 1834 history records