Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:20:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9ad0…5e85 crypto 178 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$175 (+11%) realized +$175 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%87W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day62.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$161
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 -5.2% -14.3% 49% 49% -0.4%
≤30d 177 -5.2% -14.3% 49% 49% -0.4%
≤90d 177 -5.2% -14.3% 49% 49% -0.4%
all 177 -5.2% -14.3% 49% 49% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 49% -0.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 49% -9.9%
15% -30.0% 49% -18.6%
20% -36.8% 49% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$276
Realized+$175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses87 / 90
Open positions1
Markets (closed)177 / 178
History coverage3d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day62.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 24 $13 +$12 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$6 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $59 +$55 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 24 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 24 $12 −$12 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$6 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$6 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$6 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $13 +$12 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $13 +$13 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$6 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$6 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$6 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $13 +$12 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $13 +$13 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $59 +$55 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $13 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $12 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $13 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $13 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $13 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $276.25 · official $276.25 (match) · 282 history records