Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:42:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9ad7…8f34 crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate71%20W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day73.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +0.4% -9.2% 71% 36% -10.5%
≤30d 28 +0.4% -9.2% 71% 36% -10.5%
≤90d 28 +0.4% -9.2% 71% 36% -10.5%
all 28 +0.4% -9.2% 71% 36% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 36% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 11% -19.1%
15% -25.8% 7% -26.9%
20% -33.1% 4% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses20 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day73.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records