Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9A 0x9ad9…7e66 crypto 861 markets active 2h ago coverage 80d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$935 (-2%) realized +$69 · open −$1,004
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate49%404W / 417L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day35.4pace
Fees−$284est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$968now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,661
7 days+$972
14 days+$988
30 days+$1,008
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$1,692
other 18% −$1,617
crypto 13% −$285
weather 5% +$127
politics 3% −$34
world 1% −$22
finance 0% −$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -18.4% -26.2% 52% 31% -6.4%
≤30d 257 -11.7% -20.1% 63% 23% -6.5%
≤90d 821 +0.5% -9.1% 49% 33% -7.4%
all 821 +0.5% -9.1% 49% 33% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 33% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 28% -16.3%
15% -25.7% 24% -24.4%
20% -33.0% 22% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$968
Realized+$69
Unrealized−$1,004
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses404 / 417
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$284
Open positions40
Markets (closed)821 / 861
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$44
Trades / day35.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 821 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 18¢ 8¢ $1,583 $643 −$939 (-59%)
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? Yes 39¢ 32¢ $252 $210 −$42 (-17%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Yes 5¢ 10¢ $11 $20 +$10 (+91%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+32%)
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $12 +$9 (+475%)
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? No 16¢ 12¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-21%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-39%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $5 −$6 (-55%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-38%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+33%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+63%)
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-70%)
Will another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-24%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-68%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Will Tereza Cristina finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-55%)
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.50% and 3.99%? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $3,565 +$1,188 +33%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $98 +$1 +1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $3,421 +$173 +5%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $3,358 +$41 +1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $4,533 +$1,093 +24%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $2,144 +$132 +6%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $46 +$2 +5%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $137 +$8 +6%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $122 +$15 +12%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $111 +$8 +8%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $104 +$6 +6%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $92 +$13 +14%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $7 +$1 +12%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $88 +$12 +14%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $154 +$9 +6%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $73 +$8 +11%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $56 +$16 +29%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $96 −$4 -5%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $52 −$12 -23%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 +$39 +126%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $8 +$16 +188%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $60 −$53 -88%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 +$21 +51%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $24 −$16 -67%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $17 +$13 +78%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $27 +$10 +36%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $191 −$191 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $162 −$162 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,097 −$1,097 -100%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -11%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $19 −$15 -78%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 15 $25 −$7 -28%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $39 −$4 -11%
Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidenti Jun 15 $39 −$1 -2%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $250 −$59 -24%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 +$26 +25%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $165 +$29 +17%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1,140 −$828 -73%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $153 +$82 +54%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $842 +$65 +8%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $25 +$1 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $41 +$107 +262%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 6¢ $0 2h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 6¢ $9 2h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 7¢ $70 3h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 8¢ $8 4h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 8¢ $51 4h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 8¢ $22 4h
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by Augus BUY No 13¢ $5 5h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 10¢ $6 6h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 10¢ $4 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $479 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $1,320 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $300 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $300 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $24 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $12 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $9 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $3 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $1,118 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $72 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $98 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 100¢ $3,594 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 95¢ $3,421 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 82¢ $3,339 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 82¢ $4 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $967.52 · official $967.53 (match) · 3500 history records