Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:47:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
9A 0x9ade…9951 sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$267 (+9%) realized +$263 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$270per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$719now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$138
other 33% −$16
crypto 18% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -13.9% -22.1% 62% 50% -2.4%
≤30d 8 -13.9% -22.1% 62% 50% -2.4%
≤90d 8 -13.9% -22.1% 62% 50% -2.4%
all 8 -13.9% -22.1% 62% 50% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 50% -2.4%
10% -29.6% 38% -11.7%
15% -36.4% 38% -20.2%
20% -42.6% 25% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$119 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$719
Realized+$263
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$270
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 57¢ 72¢ $250 $318 +$68 (+27%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? No 77¢ 76¢ $244 $243 −$2 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? No 83¢ 60¢ $221 $158 −$63 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $517 +$263 +51%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $523 +$48 +9%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $108 −$107 -99%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $101 +$74 +73%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $101 −$100 -99%
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $202 +$89 +44%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $152 −$150 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? Jun 26 $548 +$60 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 77¢ $246 22m
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $253 25m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 83¢ $222 34m
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $150 42m
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $571 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $108 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 70¢ $108 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 91¢ $523 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 88¢ $219 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 82¢ $302 2h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $517 12h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 19h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 19h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Norway 64¢ $152 27h
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 69¢ $202 27h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? BUY Yes 93¢ $4 35h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? BUY Yes 90¢ $40 35h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? BUY Yes 89¢ $504 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $718.94 · official $718.95 (match) · 21 history records