Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:27:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9A 0x9ae5…8386 sports 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$270 (+28%) realized +$257 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%21W / 24L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$98
14 days+$130
30 days+$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$299
other 14% −$7
world 2% −$15
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -8.0% -16.7% 43% 43% +27.1%
≤30d 30 -5.8% -14.8% 47% 43% +25.7%
≤90d 45 -4.3% -13.4% 47% 44% +17.9%
all 45 -4.3% -13.4% 47% 44% +17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 44% +17.9%
10% -21.7% 44% +6.6%
15% -29.2% 44% -3.7%
20% -36.2% 42% -13.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +30% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$13 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized+$257
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses21 / 24
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions5
Markets (closed)45 / 50
History coverage48d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 78¢ $35 $52 +$17 (+49%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 52¢ 50¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-10%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 +$27 +176%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $96 +$93 +97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 +$15 +76%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 +$6 +42%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $13 +$30 +238%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $6 +$3 +60%
1H Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $23 +$42 +180%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 03 $6 −$6 -99%
Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5 May 30 $18 −$17 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime? May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Song Yadong win by KO or TKO? May 29 $14 −$14 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 29 $20 +$15 +76%
Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5 May 28 $15 −$15 -98%
Vicenza: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Samuele Pieri May 27 $10 +$1 +6%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5 May 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5 May 27 $40 −$40 -100%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 15.5 May 26 $27 +$23 +86%
Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5 May 25 $31 +$44 +146%
Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5 May 23 $19 +$16 +83%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 5.5 May 22 $8 +$4 +52%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 May 21 $110 +$119 +108%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 104.5 May 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on May 13? May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Geneva Open, Qualification: Sebastian Ofner vs Kilian Feldbausch May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5) May 10 $20 +$18 +87%
Knicks vs. 76ers: 1H Moneyline May 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $16 +$9 +60%
Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 12.5 May 08 $18 +$14 +79%
Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5 May 08 $18 +$16 +89%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5 May 07 $20 −$20 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Desmond Bane: Points O/U 18.5 May 04 $20 +$17 +86%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $15 +$36 +236%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $23 +$34 +145%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $36 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 29¢ $43 22h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 26h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 26h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 44h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $27 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $68 2d
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $20 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 70¢ $15 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $13 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $4 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $5 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $6 7d
1H Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $10 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 35¢ $23 9d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 BUY No 51¢ $6 15d
Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5 BUY Yes 39¢ $18 19d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 19d
Will Song Yadong win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 20d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 56¢ $20 20d
Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5 BUY Yes 39¢ $15 20d
Vicenza: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Samuele Pieri SELL Diego Dedura-Palomero 100¢ $11 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.95 · official $118.28 (match) · 103 history records