Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:49:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9ae8…a011 other 239 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%6W / 232L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$29
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$38
sports 24% −$20
politics 8% −$5
economics 6% −$6
crypto 6% −$7
culture 6% −$6
world 4% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 81 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 188 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 238 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses6 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)238 / 239
History coverage127d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $395 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 17 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $277 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $45 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 16 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $150 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $684 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $361 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $158 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $293 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $230 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $301 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $147 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $207 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $128 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $634 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $222 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $96 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $233 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $425 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $641 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $171 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $197 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $102 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $563 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $118 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $330 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $397 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $277 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $281 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $292 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $124 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $251 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $228 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $51 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $106 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $44 19m
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 1h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $44 8h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $44 9h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $44 10h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $45 11h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $45 14h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $45 16h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 17h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 20h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $45 20h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $45 22h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $45 23h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $45 25h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $45 26h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $45 28h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $45 29h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $45 31h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 39h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 41h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $45 42h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $45 44h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 45h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 47h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $45 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $45 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $45 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $45 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $45 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.22 · official $44.22 (match) · 1366 history records