Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:15:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9aea…9709 politics 190 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,512 (+1%) realized +$1,512 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate14%26W / 162L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$1,339per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$55
30 days−$326
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$120
politics 39% −$138
sports 12% +$1,710
economics 2% −$4
world 2% +$3
culture 2% −$6
tech 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 53 -6.0% -14.9% 4% 2% -9.9%
≤90d 126 -0.8% -10.2% 5% 3% -8.9%
all 188 -2.2% -11.5% 14% 9% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 9% -9.0%
10% -20.0% 8% -17.7%
15% -27.7% 6% -25.7%
20% -34.8% 6% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,810) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$8 · ×13.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$289
Realized+$1,512
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses26 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)188 / 190
History coverage160d
Avg bet$1,339
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $157 $157 +$0 (+0%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $132 $132 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $1,636 −$3 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $1,371 −$2 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $235 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,843 −$5 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,407 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $5,031 −$5 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $831 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $5,709 −$13 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $1,352 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $816 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,500 −$4 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,316 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,775 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $685 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $4,748 −$5 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,842 −$4 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $832 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $3,010 −$5 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,363 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $4,089 −$7 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,797 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $83 +$75 +90%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2,332 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $2,486 −$3 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,087 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $773 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,842 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,281 −$3 -0%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 02 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $69 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $1,941 −$3 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $448 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,321 −$3 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $1,081 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $1,086 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $4,153 −$4 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $2,898 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $953 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 29 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $1,772 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,636 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $2,458 −$3 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $671 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $340 1h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $341 3h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $237 21h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $132 22h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $237 23h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $249 25h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $250 27h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $235 2d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $235 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $327 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $327 3d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $329 5d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $330 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $259 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $259 5d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $694 5d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $695 6d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $830 6d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $831 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $765 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $767 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $802 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $803 7d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $733 7d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $734 7d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $815 8d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $816 8d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $783 8d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $784 8d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $502 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $289.49 · official $289.49 (match) · 640 history records