Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9aee…d71e other 257 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 249L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$30
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$45
sports 27% −$24
politics 7% −$6
crypto 7% −$5
culture 6% −$7
economics 5% −$5
world 4% −$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 190 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 256 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 249
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)256 / 257
History coverage134d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $188 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $321 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $502 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $211 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $424 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 15 $642 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $166 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $251 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $324 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $215 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $295 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $318 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $205 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $999 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $284 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $228 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $360 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $298 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $336 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $60 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $374 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $104 −$1 -1%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $133 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $61 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $446 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $124 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $378 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $514 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $462 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $130 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $62 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 2h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 3h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $55 6h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $55 7h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $52 8h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $52 10h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 24h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 25h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 27h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 28h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 30h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 32h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 34h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 36h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 37h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 39h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 43h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 45h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $56 46h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $56 47h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $56 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $56 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 3d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 3d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 3d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 3d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.30 · official $55.30 (match) · 1395 history records