Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:27:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9aef…26f6 sports 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$472 (-9%) realized −$472 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate30%21W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$26
14 days−$684
30 days−$600
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$614
other 8% +$29
crypto 3% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-42.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -34.4% -40.6% 39% 21% -8.5%
≤30d 70 -36.9% -42.9% 30% 19% -20.3%
≤90d 70 -36.9% -42.9% 30% 19% -20.3%
all 70 -36.9% -42.9% 30% 19% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.9% 19% -20.3%
10% -48.4% 14% -27.9%
15% -53.4% 13% -34.9%
20% -58.0% 10% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$22 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$472
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses21 / 49
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 74
History coverage21d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $371 +$44 +12%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $400 +$8 +2%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $1 +$2 +166%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $392 +$37 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +58%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $10 +$21 +206%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Jun 18 $800 −$3 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$4 -74%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$6 -60%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $57 +$30 +53%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 −$5 -59%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $9 −$5 -56%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $22 −$4 -18%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $347 +$21 +6%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $79 −$17 -22%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $415 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $371 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $61 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $408 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 98¢ $3 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 98¢ $400 2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 36¢ $1 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 22¢ $10 18h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $430 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 91¢ $392 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 32¢ $10 41h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $10 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 2d
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) SELL Czechia 98¢ $397 2d
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) BUY Czechia 99¢ $400 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 215 history records