Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:42:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9af1…7d5a sports 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$69 (-12%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%15W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$2
14 days−$55
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$17
other 26% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +32.8% +20.2% 75% 75% -8.8%
≤30d 26 -1.4% -10.7% 58% 58% -20.8%
≤90d 26 -1.4% -10.7% 58% 58% -20.8%
all 26 -1.4% -10.7% 58% 58% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 58% -20.8%
10% -19.3% 46% -28.4%
15% -27.1% 42% -35.3%
20% -34.2% 42% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$20 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses15 / 11
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage15d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner L1ga Team 66¢ 66¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $44 +$7 +17%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $23 +$21 +89%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $10 +$13 +134%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $18 −$18 -99%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $10 +$8 +79%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $37 −$37 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $15 +$12 +79%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $10 +$5 +52%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $64 −$63 -99%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $34 +$30 +86%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $21 +$14 +64%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $11 +$10 +93%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $36 −$36 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $32 +$10 +31%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $28 +$4 +16%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $25 +$3 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$9 +93%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $5 +$5 +97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$5 +51%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $7 −$7 -99%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 09 $10 −$3 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY L1ga Team 66¢ $51 7m
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $52 35m
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 85¢ $44 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $44 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 52¢ $23 2h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MODUS 42¢ $10 21h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 69¢ $18 22h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner SELL Rune Eaters 100¢ $18 22h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 55¢ $10 23h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 39¢ $37 24h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner SELL Grind Back 100¢ $27 28h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 55¢ $15 29h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 65¢ $10 45h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 54¢ $64 3d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 100¢ $64 3d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 53¢ $34 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $35 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 60¢ $21 3d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 3d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $11 3d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 11d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 11d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 13¢ $3 11d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $6 12d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $36 12d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 99¢ $42 12d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 75¢ $32 12d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 100¢ $32 12d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 86¢ $28 12d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $28 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.37 · official $47.89 · 44 history records