Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:29:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9af3…6ad1 world 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate27%10W / 27L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$3
other 34% $0
politics 7% +$4
culture 7% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 16 -0.4% -9.9% 31% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 16 -0.4% -9.9% 31% 0% -9.0%
all 37 -0.1% -9.6% 27% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 3% -8.9%
10% -18.2% 0% -17.6%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.4% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×6.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.17 per $1 lost it wins $5.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses10 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage302d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $50 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $42 +$3 +8%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $47 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $46 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $89 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $42 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $4 −$1 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $46 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $42 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $46 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $47 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $43 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 19 $5 $0 -3%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $38 +$4 +10%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15? Oct 23 $5 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $4 +$1 +11%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 24 $39 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 23 $3 $0 -13%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 23 $3 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Aug 22 $39 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $4 13m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $47 13m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $50 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $36 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $10 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $7 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $35 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $38 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $38 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $47 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $47 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $47 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $10 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $37 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $47 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $47 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $47 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $47 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $47 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $46 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $42 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $42 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $14 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $19 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $9 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $42 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $47 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $47 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records