Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9af4…5886 sports 24 markets active 172d ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%14W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 99% $0
sports 1% −$3
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 24 -9.7% -18.3% 58% 50% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 50% -22.4%
10% -26.1% 46% -29.8%
15% -33.2% 38% -36.6%
20% -39.8% 29% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses14 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage13d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? Dec 25 $3,377 $0 -0%
Raptors vs. Heat Dec 25 $1 +$2 +186%
49ers vs. Colts Dec 23 $1 $0 +45%
Jets vs. Avalanche Dec 22 $1 $0 +43%
Bengals vs. Dolphins Dec 22 $1 +$1 +52%
Rams vs. Seahawks Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Kings vs. Panthers Dec 19 $1 +$1 +75%
Knicks vs. Pacers Dec 19 $2 +$1 +56%
Blackhawks vs. Maple Leafs Dec 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-12-15? Dec 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2025-12-15? Dec 17 $1 $0 +4%
LoL: ZSM vs Oh My God (BO3) Dec 17 $1 $0 +9%
Chargers vs. Chiefs Dec 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-12? Dec 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Dec 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Commanders vs. Giants Dec 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Raiders vs. Eagles Dec 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Cardinals vs. Texans Dec 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bills vs. Patriots Dec 15 $2 +$2 +85%
Pacers vs. 76ers Dec 14 $1 $0 +35%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 14 $1 +$1 +75%
Kraken vs. Utah Dec 14 $2 +$1 +59%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 172d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 172d
Raptors vs. Heat BUY Raptors 35¢ $1 174d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 174d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 174d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 174d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 174d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 174d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 174d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 174d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 174d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 174d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 174d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 232 history records