Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:45:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9A 0x9afb…8c38 other 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$140 (+15%) realized +$146 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%30W / 37L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days−$4
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$162
sports 38% +$19
crypto 9% −$57
world 3% +$12
politics 1% +$2
culture 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +9.7% -0.8% 67% 67% +6.9%
≤30d 18 -0.4% -9.9% 44% 44% +7.7%
≤90d 56 +0.3% -9.3% 46% 46% +9.3%
all 67 -3.1% -12.3% 45% 43% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 43% +4.6%
10% -20.7% 43% -5.4%
15% -28.4% 40% -14.6%
20% -35.4% 39% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$9 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$146
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses30 / 37
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage145d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $13 +$13 +103%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 24 $10 +$3 +26%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 −$3 -31%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Tajikistan vs. India: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $10 +$10 +103%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $19 −$19 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $45 +$25 +56%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $15 −$1 -6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $24 +$12 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $35 +$49 +139%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $9 +$9 +109%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 26 $10 −$10 -95%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $16 +$15 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 109.5 May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $10 +$13 +123%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $29 +$15 +52%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $10 +$19 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 23 $5 +$3 +63%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 22 $3 −$3 -94%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $10 +$6 +59%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $10 +$6 +57%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $10 +$16 +158%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $10 +$7 +67%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 105.5 May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $10 +$13 +124%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $10 +$9 +93%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $10 +$8 +76%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $10 +$20 +197%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: Draw at halftime? May 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $11 +$7 +67%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 04 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $41 +$55 +134%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $19 −$19 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $13 2h
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes $13 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $11 10d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY $10 10d
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes $10 11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 12d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 12d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 37¢ $7 12d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 12d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 12d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 31¢ $9 12d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 12d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 12d
Tajikistan vs. India: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $21 14d
Tajikistan vs. India: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 14d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 43¢ $10 15d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 41¢ $19 24d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 24d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 57¢ $34 24d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 57¢ $10 24d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 40¢ $14 24d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 24d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 24d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-05-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 25d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 67¢ $24 26d
Will Egypt win on 2026-05-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $84 26d
Will Egypt win on 2026-05-28? BUY Yes 41¢ $35 26d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.22 · official $14.22 (match) · 127 history records