Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:59:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
9B 0x9b02…826a other 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+4%) realized +$37 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate91%10W / 1L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$56
sports 20% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +4.0% -5.9% 91% 45% -4.3%
≤30d 11 +4.0% -5.9% 91% 45% -4.3%
≤90d 11 +4.0% -5.9% 91% 45% -4.3%
all 11 +4.0% -5.9% 91% 45% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 45% -4.3%
10% -14.9% 9% -13.5%
15% -23.1% 9% -21.8%
20% -30.7% 0% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$40 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized+$37
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses10 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $100 +$4 +4%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 +$6 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $120 +$10 +8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $89 +$17 +19%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $80 +$6 +8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$3 +11%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $54 +$27 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 6m
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 34h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $40 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $130 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 87¢ $54 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 79¢ $25 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $86 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 93¢ $80 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 90¢ $25 4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $54 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.68 · official $198.68 (match) · 25 history records