Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:06:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b04…f8e5 crypto 274 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$572 (-4%) realized −$572 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate56%154W / 120L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day33.3pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$146
14 days−$569
30 days−$693
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$521
crypto 8% −$172
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -33.2% -39.5% 53% 35% -13.3%
≤30d 274 -8.4% -17.2% 56% 46% -14.2%
≤90d 274 -8.4% -17.2% 56% 46% -14.2%
all 274 -8.4% -17.2% 56% 46% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 46% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 36% -22.4%
15% -32.3% 32% -29.9%
20% -39.0% 28% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$23 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$572
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses154 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions0
Markets (closed)274 / 274
History coverage17d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day33.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 274 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $50 +$3 +6%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Murphy Cassone Jun 21 $50 +$4 +7%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova Jun 21 $40 +$7 +17%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $40 +$6 +16%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $30 +$4 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $5 +$4 +73%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $312 −$290 -93%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 19 $201 +$26 +13%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 18 $200 +$17 +8%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $201 +$29 +14%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Raphael Perot Jun 18 $201 +$24 +12%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $201 +$29 +15%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Jun 17 $200 +$14 +7%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $201 +$4 +2%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 17 $200 +$12 +6%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $10 −$8 -83%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $201 +$28 +14%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $200 +$10 +5%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $6 $0 +5%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Monzon vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Parma: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Alexander Weis Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Alex Santino Nunez Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Fangran Tian Jun 16 $1 −$1 -85%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $2 −$1 -52%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $1 −$1 -85%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 +$1 +46%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $101 +$36 +35%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $240 +$12 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro SELL Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $53 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 94¢ $50 2h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Murphy Cassone BUY Alex Molcan 93¢ $50 4h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Solana Sierra 100¢ $47 4h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Solana Sierra 85¢ $40 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $46 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 86¢ $40 25h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo SELL TDK 100¢ $34 28h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY TDK 89¢ $30 29h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $8 45h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 100¢ $9 46h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 57¢ $5 47h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner SELL Sebastian Ofner 80¢ $5 47h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Sebastian Ofner 78¢ $5 47h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 48¢ $102 2d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Nikola Bartunkova 9¢ $6 2d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 15¢ $11 2d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Nikola Bartunkova 5¢ $15 2d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 95¢ $300 2d
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri SELL Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $227 2d
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 88¢ $201 2d
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 92¢ $200 2d
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Alexandra Eala 87¢ $201 2d
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Raphael Perot BUY Cosme de Ravel 89¢ $201 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $13 3d
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 99¢ $230 3d
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 86¢ $201 3d
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic SELL Sarah Rakotomanga 100¢ $2 3d
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic SELL Sarah Rakotomanga 100¢ $213 3d
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic BUY Sarah Rakotomanga 93¢ $200 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 756 history records