Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9B 0x9b06…0b42 crypto 516 markets active 2d ago coverage 487d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ Covers last 487d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,857 (+1%) realized +$2,850 · open −$993
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate52%259W / 242L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$695per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$51,341now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 487d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$503
other 35% +$17,066
tech 3% +$1,233
finance 3% −$3,556
sports 2% −$1,247
culture 0% +$229
weather 0% +$187
world 0% −$459
politics 0% −$286
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -17.6% -25.4% 40% 33% -2.9%
≤30d 19 -23.1% -30.4% 37% 32% +17.0%
≤90d 76 +13.6% +2.8% 55% 42% +4.8%
all 501 -2.2% -11.5% 52% 32% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 32% -3.9%
10% -19.9% 22% -13.1%
15% -27.7% 16% -21.5%
20% -34.8% 13% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$359 vs −$325 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$51,341
Realized+$2,850
Unrealized−$993
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses259 / 242
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions22
Markets (closed)501 / 516
History coverage487d ⚠
Avg bet$695
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 501 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $47,200 $46,925 −$275 (-1%)
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Yes 59¢ 67¢ $719 $816 +$97 (+14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $960 $707 −$253 (-26%)
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $785 $464 −$321 (-41%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $400 $397 −$3 (-1%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 84¢ 90¢ $360 $385 +$25 (+7%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? No 26¢ 18¢ $520 $370 −$150 (-29%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes 41¢ 36¢ $263 $231 −$32 (-12%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $190 $178 −$12 (-6%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 89¢ 92¢ $150 $154 +$4 (+3%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $150 $152 +$2 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $150 $128 −$22 (-15%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 40¢ 40¢ $120 $118 −$1 (-1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30? No 87¢ 85¢ $99 $96 −$3 (-3%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+4%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $56 $50 −$6 (-11%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026? Yes 44¢ 32¢ $32 $24 −$8 (-26%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Will SpaceX have the highest private market valuation on June 30? No 9¢ 1¢ $20 $3 −$17 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 110 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $6.00-$7.00 on the final day of trading Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $2.00-$3.00 on the final day of trading Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $0-$1.00 on the final day of trading of Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $120 +$360 +300%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $153 +$147 +96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $82 +$5 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $152 +$248 +163%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1,536 +$186 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $184 +$109 +59%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $517 −$510 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 01 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? May 31 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $850 +$1,068 +126%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 08 $90 +$11 +13%
Will Google dip to $220 in April? May 04 $64 +$2 +3%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 04 $33 +$95 +289%
Will Google dip to $255 in April? May 04 $165 +$49 +30%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $214 −$210 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $305 +$445 +146%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $650 +$103 +16%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $99 −$97 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $196 −$196 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $90 −$89 -99%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $280 −$273 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto end in a draw? Apr 16 $128 −$125 -97%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $301 −$274 -91%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in April? Apr 14 $101 +$202 +200%
Will Google reach $310 in April? Apr 08 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in April? Apr 03 $105 −$98 -93%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 02 $215 −$145 -68%
Will Google dip to $280 in April? Apr 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin outperform NVIDIA (NVDA) in March 2026? Apr 01 $427 +$113 +27%
Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in March 2026? Apr 01 $383 +$229 +60%
Will Bitcoin outperform Silver in March 2026? Apr 01 $1,318 +$260 +20%
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in March 2026? Apr 01 $2,310 +$1,403 +61%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $3.00-$4.00 on the final day of trading Apr 01 $2,152 −$2,081 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 01 $346 −$258 -74%
Will the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) close above 5250 on the final t Apr 01 $11 +$23 +205%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March? Apr 01 $40 +$6 +15%
Will BNB dip to $500 in March? Apr 01 $80 +$6 +8%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 end of March? Apr 01 $82 +$24 +30%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? Apr 01 $62 +$77 +124%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of March? Apr 01 $237 +$12 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 86¢ $80 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 52¢ $104 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $154 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 3d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $99 7d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $150 7d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 41¢ $259 8d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 19¢ $51 8d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $400 8d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $302 8d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $1 8d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $59 8d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 10d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 11d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $16 11d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 11d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $47,279 11d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $58 11d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 11d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 11d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 11d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 11d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 11d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 11d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 11d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 11d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 11d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51,340.73 · official $51,341.18 (match) · 3500 history records