Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:41:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9B 0x9b06…721a other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$44 (+5%) realized +$67 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$8
14 days+$23
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$10
tech 11% +$27
sports 9% +$6
crypto 2% −$20
politics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -18.5% -26.3% 43% 43% -7.5%
≤30d 33 +16.0% +4.9% 42% 42% -3.5%
≤90d 33 +16.0% +4.9% 42% 42% -3.5%
all 35 +9.4% -1.0% 40% 40% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 40% -5.7%
10% -10.5% 40% -14.8%
15% -19.2% 37% -23.0%
20% -27.1% 26% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$14 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$67
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)35 / 40
History coverage152d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 63¢ 18¢ $30 $9 −$21 (-71%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 66¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+177%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 $0 -4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$26 +85%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -71%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$54 +106%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +63%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$22 +43%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$29 +96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$8 -79%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$11 +1116%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$6 -18%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $101 +$27 +27%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$14 +137%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? Jan 27 $10 −$10 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 46¢ $23 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 57¢ $10 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 8h
Agustín Canobbio: 1+ shots on target AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 28¢ $10 8h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Germany to win the second half? BUY 36¢ $8 36h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 96¢ $56 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 95¢ $14 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 3d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 53¢ $17 3d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 4d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $105 4d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 6d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $17 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 6d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $72 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.39 · official $15.82 · 60 history records