Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:01:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9B 0x9b06…a18b sports 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$168 (-0%) realized −$198 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate57%84W / 63L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$295est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days−$242
14 days−$150
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$371
world 6% +$696
other 5% −$587
crypto 1% −$41
politics 0% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +24.6% +12.7% 67% 47% -27.2%
≤30d 26 +19.1% +7.8% 77% 50% -7.3%
≤90d 147 -4.7% -13.8% 57% 31% -9.1%
all 147 -4.7% -13.8% 57% 31% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 31% -9.1%
10% -22.0% 18% -17.8%
15% -29.6% 12% -25.7%
20% -36.5% 8% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$99 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized−$198
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses84 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$295
Open positions11
Markets (closed)147 / 158
History coverage59d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China Namibia 75¢ 100¢ $129 $172 +$43 (+34%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 15¢ 71¢ $5 $24 +$19 (+383%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $5 $21 +$16 (+328%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 19¢ 99¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+427%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 40¢ 25¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China Hong Kong, China 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $104 +$13 +13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +105%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $110 +$12 +11%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$3 +262%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Jun 18 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$5 -90%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will England win? Jun 17 $7 −$1 -19%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 17 $6 $0 +7%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Who wins the t Jun 17 $3 +$3 +95%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $370 −$369 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $241 +$62 +26%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $381 +$28 +7%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 12 $331 +$51 +15%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $286 +$41 +14%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $303 +$114 +38%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $261 +$41 +16%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 28 $212 +$51 +24%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $211 +$2 +1%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $198 +$12 +6%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 24 $178 +$21 +12%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $160 +$2 +1%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $356 −$6 -2%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $534 +$15 +3%
Bengaluru 3: Manish Sureshkumar vs Ilya Ivashka May 20 $1 −$1 -87%
Bengaluru 3: Dominik Palan vs Alastair Gray May 20 $1 $0 +7%
Bengaluru 3: Keegan Smith vs Manish Sureshkumar May 19 $282 −$274 -97%
Bengaluru 3: Hamish Stewart vs Aditya Balsekar May 19 $261 +$22 +8%
Bengaluru 3: Takuya Kumasaka vs Taiyo Yamanaka May 19 $630 −$115 -18%
Bengaluru 3: Dominik Palan vs Kokoro Isomura May 19 $141 +$28 +20%
Bengaluru 3: Grigoriy Lomakin vs Alex Hernandez May 19 $8 $0 +5%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $138 +$10 +7%
Cervia: Manoj Dhamne Manas vs Mitchell Krueger May 18 $32 −$15 -46%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $449 +$10 +2%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $228 +$30 +13%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $225 +$3 +2%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $416 +$40 +10%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Leolia Jeanjean vs Leylah Fernandez May 17 $174 +$9 +5%
Geneva Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Mariano Navone May 17 $355 −$6 -2%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $160 +$23 +14%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 16 $380 +$11 +3%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $549 +$7 +1%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 16 $180 +$17 +10%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 15 $181 +$47 +26%
Jiujiang: Xiaodi You vs En-Shuo Liang May 11 $220 +$19 +8%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $169 +$10 +6%
Brazzaville: Calvin Hemery vs Ivan Marrero May 09 $3 $0 -8%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Etcheverry vs Mattia Bellucci May 09 $160 +$8 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China BUY Namibia 75¢ $130 1h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China BUY Hong Kong, China 32¢ $1 4h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 87¢ $100 4h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 68¢ $1 5h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 71¢ $1 5h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 28¢ $2 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 9h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 90¢ $110 19h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 24h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 31h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 31h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 31h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Brazil 28¢ $5 31h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 11¢ $2 31h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $1 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 31h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 0¢ $5 31h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 31h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 15¢ $5 31h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $6 47h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands SELL India 99¢ $5 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 98¢ $5 2d
Will England win? SELL Yes 50¢ $6 2d
Will England win? BUY Yes 61¢ $7 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi SELL Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 100¢ $6 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 93¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.53 · official $238.64 · 434 history records