Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:48:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9B 0x9b0d…4d41 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$3
politics 4% $0
finance 2% $0
sports 2% +$1
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 12 +4.5% -5.5% 67% 17% -9.6%
all 12 +4.5% -5.5% 67% 17% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 17% -9.6%
10% -14.5% 8% -18.2%
15% -22.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -30.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage62d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 22 $42 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? Jun 04 $42 $0 +0%
Will MIBR win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $42 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 29 $42 $0 +0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $42 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A May 04 $1 $0 +7%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Pcific Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega May 04 $1 $0 +18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B May 04 $1 $0 +27%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $2,528 −$3 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 29 $47 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $46 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 16d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? SELL No 100¢ $27 17d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? SELL No 99¢ $15 17d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 99¢ $14 18d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 99¢ $2 18d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 99¢ $2 18d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 99¢ $2 18d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 99¢ $3 18d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 99¢ $0 18d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 99¢ $0 18d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 99¢ $0 18d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 99¢ $1 18d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 99¢ $0 18d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 99¢ $4 18d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 99¢ $9 18d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 99¢ $1 18d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 99¢ $1 18d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 99¢ $1 18d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 99¢ $1 18d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 99¢ $1 18d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 99¢ $0 18d
Will MIBR win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 19d
Will MIBR win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 20d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 100¢ $42 25d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 26d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 46d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $2,525 49d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $2,528 52d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Pcific Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega BUY Team Vitality 84¢ $1 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records