Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:46:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b0f…3476 sports 76 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$444 (-4%) realized +$307 · open −$751
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%22W / 50L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$207est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$287
7 days−$303
14 days−$450
30 days−$1,026
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$1,869
other 4% +$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +2.3% -7.4% 37% 33% -18.3%
≤30d 72 -17.1% -25.0% 31% 29% -17.9%
≤90d 72 -17.1% -25.0% 31% 29% -17.9%
all 72 -17.1% -25.0% 31% 29% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 29% -17.9%
10% -32.2% 28% -25.8%
15% -38.7% 28% -32.9%
20% -44.7% 25% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -19% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$198 vs −$108 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$307
Unrealized−$751
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses22 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$207
Open positions4
Markets (closed)72 / 76
History coverage18d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $127 $125 −$2 (-2%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Over 56¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Over 42¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 Over 31¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 18 $16 −$12 -75%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 −$3 -30%
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $11 −$3 -28%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $14 −$3 -20%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $20 −$5 -26%
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $19 −$3 -17%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $6 +$14 +238%
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $29 −$9 -32%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 18 $17 +$6 +37%
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $21 +$2 +8%
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $10 +$31 +303%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $123 −$121 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $335 −$331 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $44 +$99 +226%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $416 +$372 +89%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $627 +$371 +59%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $30 −$29 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $58 −$56 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $152 −$149 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $293 +$334 +114%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $404 −$399 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $97 −$95 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $305 −$300 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $28 −$27 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $17 +$31 +177%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 11 $50 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 11 $11 +$47 +436%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 11 $40 +$49 +122%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 111.5 Jun 11 $50 +$48 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 117.5 Jun 11 $9 +$21 +223%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $16 −$16 -98%
Avaí FC leading at halftime? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $57 +$85 +149%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $130 1m
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 70¢ $367 1m
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $231 11m
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 2¢ $4 17m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 17m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 17m
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 17m
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 17m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 17m
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 17m
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $11 17m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $14 17m
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 26¢ $16 18m
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $20 18m
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $20 18m
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 44¢ $23 18m
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 38¢ $23 18m
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $41 18m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 31¢ $51 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 42¢ $203 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 56¢ $507 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 55¢ $123 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 56¢ $335 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $143 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $788 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $300 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $30 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $39 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $111 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $19 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.78 · official $191.27 · 124 history records