Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:53:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9B 0x9b11…2543 crypto 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$319 (+5%) realized +$312 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate100%23W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$557now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$124
14 days+$322
30 days+$491
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$519
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +6.9% -3.3% 100% 0% -2.3%
≤30d 21 +8.5% -1.8% 100% 24% -1.6%
≤90d 23 +8.6% -1.7% 100% 22% -1.5%
all 23 +8.6% -1.7% 100% 22% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 22% -1.5%
10% -11.1% 0% -10.9%
15% -19.7% 0% -19.5%
20% -27.6% 0% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$557
Realized+$312
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses23 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage32d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? Up 91¢ 92¢ $500 $508 +$8 (+2%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 22? Up 96¢ 93¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? Jun 21 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 21 $502 +$25 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $503 +$46 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $503 +$52 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $504 +$58 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $503 +$46 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $201 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $201 +$13 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $201 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $201 +$22 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $202 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $202 +$23 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $201 +$17 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31? Jun 01 $202 +$31 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 30? May 30 $201 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $201 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $201 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $201 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $201 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? May 22 $10 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 96¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 91¢ $503 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 95¢ $502 2d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 97¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 91¢ $503 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 90¢ $503 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 89¢ $504 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 91¢ $503 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 100¢ $217 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 92¢ $201 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 93¢ $201 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 91¢ $201 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 90¢ $201 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 89¢ $202 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? BUY Up 89¢ $202 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? BUY Down 96¢ $201 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? BUY Down 91¢ $201 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? BUY Down 98¢ $200 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? BUY Down 95¢ $201 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31? BUY Down 86¢ $202 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 30? BUY Up 91¢ $201 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? BUY Up 91¢ $201 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? BUY Down 90¢ $201 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? BUY Down 91¢ $201 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 22? BUY Down 90¢ $201 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? BUY Down 90¢ $10 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $556.68 · official $551.45 (match) · 70 history records