Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:28:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9B
0x9b13…eb31
other · 82 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$52 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$62 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$154
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses35 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)80 / 82
History coverage471d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 2 History 80 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$14
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 75¢ 77¢ $148 $152 +$4 (+3%)
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 36¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $544 −$19 -4%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $45 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $474 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $141 +$4 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $142 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $142 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $92 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $141 +$1 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $288 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $475 −$17 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $579 +$1 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $291 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $73 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $6 $0 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $376 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $17 +$9 +52%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $283 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $93 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $160 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 17 $101 +$1 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $486 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $91 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $21 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $113 $0 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 22 $103 −$6 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 22 $14 −$1 -6%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $2,038 −$1 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $2,036 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $1,010 −$44 -4%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $1,192 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $2 +$2 +99%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 20 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 20 $2 $0 +6%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $21 $0 +1%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 14 $21 $0 -1%
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 May 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? May 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $43 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or higher on May 10? May 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? May 09 $21 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 08 $20 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 08 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 45% −$2
world 42% −$58
sports 11% +$6
politics 1% −$4
crypto 1% +$1
weather 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $129 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $20 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $90 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $86 9h
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $45 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $45 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $159 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $159 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 98¢ $37 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 98¢ $108 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 96¢ $131 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 96¢ $11 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $142 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $142 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $45 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $97 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $55 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $87 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $92 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $77 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $142 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $141 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $156 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $156 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $56 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $33 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $24 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $155 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 56% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 22 +2.8% -7.0% 55% 5% -9.9%
≤90d 32 -1.5% -10.9% 44% 3% -10.2%
all 80 -0.8% -10.2% 44% 5% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 5% -10.1%
10% -18.8% 5% -18.7%
15% -26.7% 5% -26.5%
20% -33.9% 4% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.61 · official $152.46 (match) · 336 history records