Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b13…37db sports 162 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$504 (-4%) realized −$426 · open −$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%88W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$149est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$658
7 days−$415
14 days−$420
30 days−$607
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$819
other 7% +$152
crypto 4% −$19
weather 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -4.4% -13.5% 55% 52% -13.3%
≤30d 161 -6.4% -15.3% 55% 52% -13.9%
≤90d 161 -6.4% -15.3% 55% 52% -13.9%
all 161 -6.4% -15.3% 55% 52% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 52% -13.9%
10% -23.4% 45% -22.1%
15% -30.8% 37% -29.7%
20% -37.6% 31% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$68 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$426
Unrealized−$78
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses88 / 73
Est. fees paid−$149
Open positions1
Markets (closed)161 / 162
History coverage21d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner OG 61¢ 14¢ $100 $22 −$78 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$23 -87%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $99 −$99 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $107 −$107 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $141 −$141 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 20 $81 −$81 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $122 −$122 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $147 −$147 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 20 $152 −$152 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 20 $167 −$167 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $259 −$259 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$22 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $100 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$11 +44%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $72 +$198 +276%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $61 −$60 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 +$47 +93%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $50 +$15 +29%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $201 +$65 +32%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 19 $102 +$99 +97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $202 +$126 +62%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $49 +$5 +11%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $100 +$18 +18%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $51 +$49 +97%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $51 +$40 +79%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $163 +$27 +17%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $13 +$2 +17%
ITF Maanshan: Hoyoung Roh vs Moerani Bouzige Jun 19 $51 −$39 -77%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $144 +$139 +96%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $121 −$97 -81%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $101 +$99 +98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $14 +$7 +53%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $87 +$13 +14%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $122 −$122 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $102 +$127 +125%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $121 −$120 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $224 −$200 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 61¢ $101 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 4h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South SELL Carstensz 100¢ $110 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 5h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Carstensz 91¢ $100 6h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $72 6h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $61 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $51 8h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 77¢ $50 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 10h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $201 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.99 · official $34.21 · 401 history records