Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:12:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9B 0x9b16…12fc sports 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 391d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$278 (+12%) realized +$260 · open +$18
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate71%39W / 16L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$46
14 days+$79
30 days+$209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$272
other 22% −$83
crypto 9% +$64
economics 2% +$2
politics 2% +$4
culture 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +5.9% -4.2% 82% 73% -0.1%
≤30d 42 -7.4% -16.2% 71% 57% +2.5%
≤90d 47 -10.3% -18.8% 68% 55% -0.7%
all 55 -5.5% -14.5% 71% 53% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 53% +1.4%
10% -22.6% 38% -8.3%
15% -30.1% 24% -17.2%
20% -37.0% 9% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$16 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

391d coverage
Net worth$254
Realized+$260
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses39 / 16
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions10
Markets (closed)55 / 65
History coverage391d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Over 85¢ 84¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $38 $50 +$11 (+30%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 92¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 22¢ $18 $32 +$14 (+80%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-9%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Over 60¢ 62¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $12 +$4 (+55%)
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 43¢ 26¢ $17 $10 −$7 (-41%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $12 $10 −$3 (-21%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 21¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $74 +$13 +17%
Norway vs. France: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $133 +$38 +29%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $24 +$6 +24%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $21 +$3 +16%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $13 +$7 +51%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $12 −$9 -76%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $15 +$5 +36%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $16 +$4 +22%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $11 +$4 +42%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $76 +$36 +48%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $29 −$29 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $36 +$14 +38%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $33 +$12 +38%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $28 −$28 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $26 +$9 +32%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $27 +$3 +11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $45 +$5 +11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $50 +$5 +10%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $24 +$6 +23%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $65 +$21 +33%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $93 +$7 +7%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $7 +$3 +34%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $96 +$4 +4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $36 +$14 +38%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -12%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? Jun 13 $11 +$3 +29%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $45 +$5 +11%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $92 +$8 +8%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $14 +$6 +40%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $45 +$5 +11%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $157 +$119 +76%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? May 28 $2 $0 +3%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? May 14 $65 +$10 +15%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 27 $17 +$19 +112%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting? Apr 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Award Mar 16 $14 +$14 +103%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting? Mar 09 $57 −$24 -43%
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Mar 09 $24 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $18 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $51 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $46 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $74 16h
Norway vs. France: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $97 16h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 22h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 22h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $24 43h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $21 45h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 45h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 15¢ $3 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $28 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $12 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $16 6d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $85 6d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $13 6d
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY Yes 43¢ $17 6d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 6d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $8 7d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 7d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $7 7d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $11 7d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $39 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $15 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $2 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $2 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $4 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.76 · official $253.76 (match) · 320 history records