Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:11:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9B 0x9b16…7346 finance 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy finance specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,347 (-1%) realized −$2,210 · open +$863
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate75%12W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,321per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12,487now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$1,758
14 days−$3,413
30 days−$1,918
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 100% −$972
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -15.6% -23.6% 67% 0% -28.2%
≤30d 15 -7.8% -16.6% 73% 7% -12.2%
≤90d 16 -7.3% -16.1% 75% 6% -11.8%
all 16 -7.3% -16.1% 75% 6% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 6% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 0% -20.3%
15% -31.5% 0% -28.0%
20% -38.2% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$208 vs −$1,084 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$12,487
Realized−$2,210
Unrealized+$863
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses12 / 4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage46d
Avg bet$4,321
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 93¢ 99¢ $6,312 $6,735 +$422 (+7%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 83¢ 96¢ $1,991 $2,312 +$321 (+16%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? No 95¢ 99¢ $2,188 $2,266 +$78 (+4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 82¢ 84¢ $1,000 $1,036 +$36 (+4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $133 $138 +$5 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in June? Jun 21 $1,201 +$7 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? Jun 16 $3,607 +$112 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 15 $3,715 −$1,877 -50%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 14 $2,299 −$1,872 -81%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 14 $1,295 +$77 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Jun 12 $360 +$13 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 09 $4,999 +$126 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 02 $1,004 +$38 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 02 $3,749 +$64 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Jun 01 $1,002 −$16 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 30 $6,517 −$571 -9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 30 $2,719 +$173 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $11,509 +$186 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 27 $11,920 +$1,519 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 23 $8,750 +$102 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 21 $5,995 +$83 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 78¢ $134 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $137 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 82¢ $1,007 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in June? SELL No 99¢ $1,008 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 83¢ $997 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY No 95¢ $1,190 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 83¢ $1,007 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY No 95¢ $1,002 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in June? BUY No 98¢ $1,001 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL No 82¢ $2,478 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL No 55¢ $838 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? SELL No 99¢ $1,878 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 93¢ $1,840 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL No 41¢ $1,838 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 30¢ $856 7d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 97¢ $860 7d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 20¢ $202 7d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 97¢ $202 7d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 19¢ $206 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? SELL No 97¢ $205 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 18¢ $306 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? SELL No 97¢ $306 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 94¢ $1,007 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? SELL No 97¢ $1,008 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 90¢ $1,004 9d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $1,006 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 86¢ $374 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? SELL No 93¢ $374 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 34¢ $104 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? SELL No 98¢ $104 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,486.86 · official $12,486.86 (match) · 105 history records