Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:33:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9B 0x9b19…ea52 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$953 (+120%) realized +$994 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +97% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +78% what you keep after slip
Net edge+78%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 90d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$933
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+78.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +106.6% +86.9% 100% 100% +148.5%
≤90d 3 +97.2% +78.5% 100% 100% +132.8%
all 3 +97.2% +78.5% 100% 100% +132.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +78.5% 100% +132.8%
10% +61.4% 100% +110.5%
15% +45.8% 100% +90.1%
20% +31.5% 67% +71.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +157% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +97% · $-wt +157% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$325 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized+$994
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage90d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? No 13¢ 10¢ $171 $130 −$41 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $504 +$884 +176%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $4 +$1 +38%
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? Mar 24 $112 +$88 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $111 1h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $55 28h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $9 28h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $1,388 17d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $4 33d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $20 33d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $484 33d
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? BUY No 56¢ $4 89d
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? BUY No 56¢ $13 89d
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? BUY No 56¢ $70 89d
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? BUY No 56¢ $26 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.02 · official $130.02 (match) · 13 history records