Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:25:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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9B 0x9b1a…120d crypto 789 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$489 (-12%) realized −$496 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate81%634W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day25.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days−$665
14 days−$570
30 days−$507
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$56
sports 30% −$406
other 28% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 220 -22.0% -29.4% 41% 40% -61.5%
≤30d 778 -2.6% -11.9% 81% 22% -21.7%
≤90d 787 -3.1% -12.3% 81% 21% -21.8%
all 787 -3.1% -12.3% 81% 21% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 21% -21.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 17% -29.3%
15% -28.4% 12% -36.1%
20% -35.4% 10% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$496
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses634 / 153
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)787 / 789
History coverage34d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day25.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 787 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 74¢ 98¢ $50 $66 +$16 (+32%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 76¢ 62¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 +$2 +152%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$6 +610%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$4 +374%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$73 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.37 · official $107.03 (match) · 1576 history records