Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:05:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b1f…9ff2 weather 1099 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 133d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,553 (-8%) realized −$1,437 · open −$116
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%457W / 619L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$287now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$35
14 days−$195
30 days−$871
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 40% −$42
sports 25% −$1,668
crypto 16% −$194
world 7% −$248
other 6% +$980
politics 4% −$298
culture 1% −$183
tech 0% +$6
economics 0% −$11
finance 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -14.8% -22.9% 44% 23% -14.8%
≤30d 186 -16.5% -24.5% 39% 30% -30.4%
≤90d 831 +0.6% -9.0% 44% 35% -14.5%
all 1076 -1.9% -11.2% 42% 35% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 35% -17.9%
10% -19.7% 34% -25.7%
15% -27.5% 32% -32.9%
20% -34.6% 30% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$15 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$287
Realized−$1,437
Unrealized−$116
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses457 / 619
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions22
Markets (closed)1076 / 1099
History coverage134d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 1076 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 22? No 72¢ 90¢ $74 $92 +$18 (+24%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 63¢ 38¢ $85 $51 −$34 (-40%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 22? Yes 50¢ 60¢ $18 $22 +$4 (+22%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $17 $21 +$4 (+22%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Yes 47¢ 27¢ $26 $15 −$11 (-43%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $16 $14 −$1 (-9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+14%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $5 $11 +$7 (+141%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+60%)
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 3¢ $21 $5 −$15 (-74%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+43%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-48%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-78%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $26 $1 −$24 (-95%)
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? Yes 22¢ 1¢ $19 $1 −$18 (-96%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $18 $1 −$17 (-97%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 38¢ 1¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-99%)
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 44¢ 2¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 22 $48 −$20 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 21? Jun 22 $19 +$23 +122%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 21 $13 +$6 +46%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 21 $8 −$3 -40%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? Jun 21 $8 +$10 +115%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 20 $71 −$49 -69%
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17m? Jun 20 $9 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 20 $8 +$25 +305%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $27 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $6 +$6 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 18 $13 +$30 +232%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 18 $8 +$29 +353%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $18 +$11 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $18 +$32 +177%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $17 +$38 +222%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 72¢ $75 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 50¢ $18 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $18 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $28 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 85¢ $19 20h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL Yes 9¢ $5 20h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 21? BUY Yes 44¢ $19 21h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? SELL Yes 32¢ $18 21h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $9 24h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 14¢ $8 24h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 57¢ $13 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $7 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $287.34 · official $287.39 (match) · 3500 history records