Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:23:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9B 0x9b20…de61 sports 196 markets active 19h ago coverage 356d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,588 (+11%) realized +$3,590 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate62%119W / 73L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$446now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$91
14 days−$82
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$2,191
other 30% +$1,380
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +32.8% +20.2% 57% 57% -44.2%
≤30d 13 +7.9% -2.4% 62% 54% -10.4%
≤90d 31 +9.5% -0.9% 74% 55% -16.3%
all 192 -1.8% -11.2% 62% 57% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 57% +0.3%
10% -19.7% 45% -9.3%
15% -27.4% 32% -18.1%
20% -34.5% 20% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$103 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

356d coverage
Net worth$446
Realized+$3,590
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses119 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions4
Markets (closed)192 / 196
History coverage356d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 82¢ $276 $274 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 90¢ 90¢ $74 $75 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? No 94¢ 94¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? No 84¢ 84¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 15 $10 +$18 +180%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $54 +$10 +18%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 14 $11 +$17 +158%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $132 −$131 -100%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $10 +$17 +172%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 08 $39 +$9 +23%
Iceland leading at halftime? Jun 01 $195 +$19 +10%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway May 30 $35 +$5 +13%
Will Nice vs. Saint-Etienne end in a draw? May 28 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $114 −$112 -98%
Will AS Roma vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? May 17 $627 +$172 +27%
Will Viking FK vs. IK Start end in a draw? May 17 $56 +$7 +13%
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Antalyaspor end in a draw? May 10 $48 +$5 +11%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 07 $45 +$5 +12%
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 04 $580 −$577 -99%
FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5 May 02 $540 −$539 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 27 $92 +$42 +46%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Moreirense FC end in a draw? Apr 26 $201 +$20 +10%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Aalesunds FK end in a draw? Apr 18 $182 +$18 +10%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $596 +$183 +31%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $247 −$247 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $24 +$5 +19%
Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins Mar 23 $128 +$109 +85%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $104 +$109 +104%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $572 +$410 +72%
US Sassuolo Calcio leading at halftime? Mar 22 $6 +$1 +10%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-19? Mar 20 $140 +$72 +52%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $92 +$9 +10%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $102 +$9 +9%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Will SS Lazio vs. AC Milan end in a draw? Mar 16 $561 +$218 +39%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $47 −$47 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 4.5 Mar 15 $6 +$16 +285%
Will SSC Napoli vs. US Lecce end in a draw? Mar 15 $543 +$255 +47%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw? Mar 14 $19 +$4 +24%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Mar 14 $96 +$47 +49%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 11 $591 +$332 +56%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-08? Mar 09 $28 +$27 +96%
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. Paris FC end in a draw? Mar 08 $565 −$565 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $108 −$108 -100%
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-03-06? Mar 07 $28 +$22 +79%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $172 +$77 +45%
Will SSC Napoli vs. Torino FC end in a draw? Mar 07 $623 +$187 +30%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Mar 04 $396 −$396 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 04 $35 +$23 +67%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Mar 04 $125 +$29 +24%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? Mar 02 $432 +$203 +47%
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw? Mar 02 $583 +$119 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? BUY No 35¢ $10 18h
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? BUY No 45¢ $7 2d
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? BUY No 45¢ $3 2d
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? BUY No 45¢ $2 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $132 2d
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? BUY No 34¢ $9 2d
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? BUY No 38¢ $11 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $54 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 36¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $25 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $25 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $49 7d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 90¢ $65 10d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 90¢ $9 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? BUY No 81¢ $20 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? BUY No 81¢ $19 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $278 12d
Iceland leading at halftime? BUY No 91¢ $195 16d
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway BUY Switzerland 88¢ $35 17d
Will Nice vs. Saint-Etienne end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 18d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 28¢ $114 22d
Will AS Roma vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $627 30d
Will Viking FK vs. IK Start end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $7 30d
Will Viking FK vs. IK Start end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $49 30d
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Antalyaspor end in a draw? BUY No 90¢ $48 38d
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $580 42d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 89¢ $45 42d
FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 44d
FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $7 44d
FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $445.93 · official $445.93 (match) · 397 history records