Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:34:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b22…3a92 world 392 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$384 (+2%) realized +$244 · open −$174
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate50%138W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day39.1pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$3,138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days+$122
14 days+$22
30 days+$319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% +$312
sports 6% −$124
finance 4% +$38
politics 2% −$77
other 2% −$44
crypto 1% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +18.2% +6.9% 58% 42% +3.6%
≤30d 125 -9.0% -17.7% 53% 36% -3.5%
≤90d 275 -13.7% -21.9% 50% 34% -7.6%
all 275 -13.7% -21.9% 50% 34% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.9% 34% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -29.4% 22% -16.5%
15% -36.2% 17% -24.5%
20% -42.5% 13% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$11 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$3,138
Realized+$244
Unrealized−$174
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses138 / 137
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions115
Markets (closed)275 / 392
History coverage84d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day39.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 115 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No 85¢ 98¢ $548 $630 +$82 (+15%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 77¢ 80¢ $203 $212 +$9 (+4%)
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $116 $122 +$6 (+5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 97¢ $93 $97 +$4 (+4%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $93 $94 +$2 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 77¢ 87¢ $75 $86 +$10 (+14%)
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? No 85¢ 83¢ $86 $84 −$2 (-2%)
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? Yes 71¢ 99¢ $56 $79 +$23 (+41%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 68¢ $74 $77 +$2 (+3%)
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $75 $76 +$1 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 75¢ 94¢ $59 $74 +$15 (+26%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 38¢ $92 $67 −$24 (-27%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 44¢ $58 $66 +$8 (+15%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $61 $62 +$1 (+2%)
Will Russia capture Prymorske by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 98¢ $52 $56 +$3 (+7%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 77¢ 80¢ $53 $55 +$2 (+3%)
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $52 $51 −$2 (-3%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 82¢ 88¢ $48 $50 +$3 (+6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 74¢ 97¢ $37 $48 +$11 (+31%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes 55¢ 80¢ $32 $47 +$15 (+45%)
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? Yes 41¢ 12¢ $160 $45 −$115 (-72%)
Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $29 $36 +$7 (+24%)
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $33 $35 +$2 (+7%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $36 $33 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 14 $35 +$3 +8%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -20%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $8 $0 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 14 $8 −$3 -36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -25%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $4 +$4 +111%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $6 +$24 +384%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $25 +$38 +151%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$4 +135%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 14 $17 +$16 +96%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -38%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $30 +$4 +15%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026? Jun 13 $59 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $15 −$8 -52%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $88 +$10 +12%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $25 +$3 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $26 −$2 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $23 −$18 -77%
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $185 +$31 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? Jun 11 $4 −$2 -59%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 11 $60 +$7 +11%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $30 +$2 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $7 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? Jun 10 $35 −$2 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -88%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 09 $58 +$15 +25%
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by July 31? Jun 09 $36 +$6 +17%
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31? Jun 08 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $17 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $10 −$4 -36%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $69 +$3 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $31 +$20 +63%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $66 −$32 -48%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $64 −$34 -53%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? Jun 06 $120 +$18 +15%
Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $57 +$7 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $16 −$3 -19%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? Jun 04 $88 +$10 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 04 $9 +$1 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 04 $13 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Jun 03 $24 $0 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $3 −$2 -70%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $1 +$1 +44%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $14 −$3 -19%
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by May 31? Jun 01 $66 −$3 -4%
Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by May 31? Jun 01 $98 +$13 +13%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by May 31? Jun 01 $22 +$2 +7%
Will Russia enter Myrne by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 52¢ $25 9m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 4¢ $2 10m
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 15m
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $7 15m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 34¢ $3 45m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $7 46m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 27¢ $2 46m
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 46m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $0 55m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $7 57m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $3 57m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $20 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 68¢ $7 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $1 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $8 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $1 1h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $5 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 27¢ $3 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $1 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 24¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,138.41 · official $3,138.44 (match) · 3491 history records