Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:11:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b28…5b76 crypto 226 markets active 0h ago coverage 187d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$621 (-5%) realized −$545 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate31%66W / 146L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$560now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$824
7 days+$767
14 days+$767
30 days+$767
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$421
crypto 22% −$469
weather 17% +$433
economics 3% −$308
sports 1% +$7
culture 1% −$32
world 0% −$15
politics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +27.6% +15.5% 19% 19% +58.6%
≤30d 27 +27.6% +15.5% 19% 19% +58.6%
≤90d 106 -15.6% -23.7% 40% 26% -3.3%
all 212 -13.9% -22.1% 31% 21% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 21% -16.2%
10% -29.6% 16% -24.2%
15% -36.4% 11% -31.5%
20% -42.6% 7% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$21 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$560
Realized−$545
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses66 / 146
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)212 / 226
History coverage187d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? Yes 21¢ 25¢ $191 $226 +$35 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $119 $138 +$19 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $79 $80 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $109 $73 −$36 (-33%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $31 $18 −$13 (-44%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $17 $11 −$6 (-36%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+33%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 0¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-58%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-90%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $122 +$504 +413%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 17? Jun 16 $26 −$21 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 −$8 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$506 +8316%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$16 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? Jun 15 $57 −$55 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 15 $63 −$60 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 15 $17 −$16 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 15 $23 +$4 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 15 $15 −$5 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -95%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $29 −$3 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $35 −$33 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 +$20 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 −$10 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 15? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -78%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on May 14? May 14 $6 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 15? May 14 $20 −$14 -71%
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit? May 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on May 15? May 14 $10 −$6 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C or higher on May 14? May 14 $23 $0 +2%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 14? May 14 $10 −$8 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 13? May 13 $153 −$92 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 14? May 13 $17 −$3 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C or higher on May 13? May 13 $174 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on May 12? May 12 $52 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 13? May 12 $36 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 12? May 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on May 12? May 12 $82 +$14 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 12? May 12 $8 −$2 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 12? May 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $99 +$46 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 11? May 11 $30 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 11? May 11 $24 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 11 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 11 $3 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 13m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 22m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 36m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 36m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 26¢ $19 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $560.36 · official $560.26 (match) · 1115 history records