Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:55:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b2d…ff5b other 335 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,586 (-0%) realized −$3,335 · open +$749
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate83%271W / 57L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,582per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$14,921now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$170
14 days+$502
30 days+$1,362
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$2,188
world 5% +$458
finance 2% +$225
crypto 2% −$1,821
tech 1% −$97
economics 1% +$303
politics 0% +$272
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 76 -1.0% -10.5% 87% 11% -9.0%
≤90d 197 -4.9% -13.9% 84% 11% -9.2%
all 328 -5.5% -14.5% 83% 12% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 12% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 6% -18.5%
15% -30.1% 4% -26.4%
20% -37.0% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$3,996) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$243 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$14,921
Realized−$3,335
Unrealized+$749
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses271 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)328 / 335
History coverage168d
Avg bet$2,582
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 328 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $8,193 $8,582 +$389 (+5%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,991 $2,998 +$8 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 92¢ $830 $915 +$85 (+10%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? No 68¢ 83¢ $675 $831 +$156 (+23%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $788 $794 +$6 (+1%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 68¢ 79¢ $632 $731 +$99 (+16%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? No 85¢ 94¢ $62 $68 +$6 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $186 +$13 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $7,183 +$12 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $956 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $498 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $212 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $5,266 +$17 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $2,972 +$24 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $1,472 +$18 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $5,557 +$10 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $3,465 +$42 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $19 +$2 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $196 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $852 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $9,982 +$18 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $592 +$64 +11%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $4,289 +$50 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $298 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $495 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1,692 +$8 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1,067 +$32 +3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $10,499 +$87 +1%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 16 $2,100 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $7,503 +$37 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 15? Jun 15 $600 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 15? Jun 15 $2,300 +$2 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 15? Jun 15 $131 +$48 +37%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $4,953 +$47 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $161 −$42 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $71 −$49 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $4,603 +$89 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $9,990 −$74 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $737 −$210 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $201 +$21 +11%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 12? Jun 12 $300 $0 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $3,962 +$29 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? Jun 12 $457 +$59 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5,646 +$214 +4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $5,190 +$10 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $18 +$2 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $10,634 +$70 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $4,371 +$9 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $4,997 +$15 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $6,144 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $2,988 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $10,470 +$32 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $10,044 +$37 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $3,031 +$10 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $2,398 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $294 51m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $199 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $7 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $13 4h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $42 15h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $193 18h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $13 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $37 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $48 24h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $23 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $39 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $410 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $270 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $91 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $260 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $293 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $160 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $525 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,920.89 · official $14,920.89 (match) · 3354 history records