Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:11:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b2f…1c0f other 191 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL +$151 (+5%) realized +$135 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate60%90W / 60L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$577now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$11
14 days−$75
30 days+$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$171
finance 21% −$22
sports 12% +$5
world 9% +$30
crypto 8% −$43
politics 3% −$10
tech 3% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -16.0% -24.0% 64% 29% -8.1%
≤30d 131 -10.9% -19.4% 59% 24% -1.8%
≤90d 150 -11.5% -19.9% 60% 28% -4.1%
all 150 -11.5% -19.9% 60% 28% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 28% -4.1%
10% -27.6% 18% -13.3%
15% -34.6% 12% -21.7%
20% -41.0% 9% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$577
Realized+$135
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses90 / 60
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions41
Markets (closed)150 / 191
History coverage58d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 95¢ $180 $193 +$12 (+7%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 94¢ 90¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 96¢ $27 $29 +$1 (+5%)
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No 49¢ 57¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+16%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Over 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 80¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? Yes 94¢ 88¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 68¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 88¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 70¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 71¢ 70¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 66¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 Under 95¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Under 91¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Over 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Côte dIvoire 96¢ 95¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 77¢ 66¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 74¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-6%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 84¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+30%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 91¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 93¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $61 +$7 +11%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 +$4 +44%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +58%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 13 $30 +$1 +3%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 +$1 +5%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 +$1 +13%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $34 +$3 +8%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -5%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Jun 11 $10 $0 -1%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 11 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 11 $54 +$17 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Jun 10 $22 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $1 $0 +15%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election Jun 09 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 09 $25 +$9 +36%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 09 $25 +$8 +33%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 09 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 09 $20 $0 -1%
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 20 Jun 09 $10 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $3 +$2 +62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$4 -86%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $30 +$1 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $10 +$2 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 9? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 9? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 9? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 9? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Mateus Simões win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? Jun 07 $10 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$2 -60%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 9? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 9? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 7? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 7? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $10 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $10 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $10 1h
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $20 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $20 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $15 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $10 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $10 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 96¢ $10 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $10 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $11 25h
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL Yes 97¢ $31 32h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 95¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Canada 94¢ $10 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 69¢ $10 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 84¢ $10 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $10 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $8 3d
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? SELL No 93¢ $10 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $17 3d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 88¢ $10 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $10 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $577.49 · official $577.50 (match) · 424 history records