Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:49:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b31…4eb6 weather 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 432d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$168 (-13%) realized −$202 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate69%20W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$123
7 days−$135
14 days−$135
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% −$101
tech 4% −$28
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -8.1% -16.8% 74% 26% -22.7%
≤30d 27 -8.1% -16.8% 74% 26% -22.7%
≤90d 27 -8.1% -16.8% 74% 26% -22.7%
all 29 -11.0% -19.5% 69% 24% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 24% -24.5%
10% -27.2% 7% -31.7%
15% -34.2% 3% -38.3%
20% -40.7% 3% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$25 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

432d coverage
Net worth$285
Realized−$202
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses20 / 9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)29 / 35
History coverage432d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 21? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $70 $74 +$4 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 21? Yes 73¢ 96¢ $50 $66 +$16 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? Yes 81¢ 99¢ $40 $49 +$9 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? Yes 84¢ 94¢ $32 $35 +$4 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 21? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $120 +$9 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? Jun 20 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $30 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $18 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $50 +$7 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $47 +$10 +21%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $39 −$28 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $86 −$85 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $48 −$48 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 20 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $9 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $2 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $18 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $18 +$1 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $18 $0 +3%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Google have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 15 $28 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 21? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 5m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? SELL Yes 99¢ $52 20m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 21? SELL Yes 99¢ $129 20m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 84¢ $32 42m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 21? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21? SELL Yes 89¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? SELL Yes 66¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 94¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 21? BUY Yes 94¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 21? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 81¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 88¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 95¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 21? BUY Yes 94¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 95¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 94¢ $30 17h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? SELL Yes 95¢ $21 18h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 22h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 20? BUY Yes 95¢ $50 22h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 85¢ $18 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 24h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 24h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 62¢ $8 25h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 25h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 25h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 62¢ $31 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $285.42 · official $285.42 (match) · 74 history records