Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:10:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b37…990f crypto 458 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 85d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5,822 (-36%) realized −$5,822 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate53%241W / 217L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 86d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$304
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -11.6% -20.0% 61% 6% -14.0%
≤30d 90 -3.6% -12.8% 66% 29% -13.0%
≤90d 458 -2.8% -12.1% 53% 20% -11.2%
all 458 -2.8% -12.1% 53% 20% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 20% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 11% -19.7%
15% -28.2% 6% -27.5%
20% -35.2% 3% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,822
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses241 / 217
Open positions0
Markets (closed)458 / 458
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 458 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $61 −$56 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $135 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $29 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $38 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $45 −$20 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $167 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $109 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $112 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $58 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $63 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $97 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $23 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $23 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $83 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $44 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 27 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 27 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 27 $29 −$19 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 27 $16 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $56 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $0 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $13 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $92 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $13 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records