Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:45:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9B 0x9b3e…0b87 sports 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,412 (-39%) realized −$1,380 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%22W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$1,320
other 15% −$114
world 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -14.1% -22.3% 50% 50% -8.3%
≤30d 8 -14.1% -22.3% 50% 50% -8.3%
≤90d 8 -14.1% -22.3% 50% 50% -8.3%
all 39 -19.9% -27.6% 56% 54% -47.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 54% -47.9%
10% -34.5% 38% -52.9%
15% -40.8% 26% -57.4%
20% -46.6% 13% -61.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$119 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized−$1,380
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses22 / 17
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage195d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 57¢ $102 $101 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 57¢ 44¢ $130 $99 −$31 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $96 −$95 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $148 +$183 +124%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $45 −$45 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $74 +$9 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$18 -59%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $42 +$27 +64%
AC Milan vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5 Jan 18 $119 −$119 -100%
AC Milan vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5 Jan 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $100 +$39 +39%
Aston Villa FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5 Jan 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $30 +$3 +10%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5 Jan 18 $100 +$30 +30%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5 Jan 18 $63 −$63 -100%
RB Leipzig vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Jan 17 $119 +$44 +37%
Chelsea FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 1.5 Jan 17 $100 +$19 +19%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Villarreal CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 Dec 21 $700 −$700 -100%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5 Dec 21 $240 −$240 -100%
Everton FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Dec 20 $266 −$266 -100%
RB Leipzig vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5 Dec 20 $100 +$56 +56%
SS Lazio vs. US Cremonese: O/U 2.5 Dec 20 $99 −$99 -100%
SS Lazio vs. US Cremonese: O/U 1.5 Dec 20 $100 −$100 -100%
VfB Stuttgart vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5 Dec 20 $64 −$64 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5 Dec 20 $54 +$11 +20%
Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5 Dec 16 $103 +$53 +52%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-14? Dec 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Racing Club de Lens vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5 Dec 15 $20 +$4 +20%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5 Dec 14 $42 +$14 +33%
AC Milan vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 1.5 Dec 14 $17 +$5 +30%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 14 $32 +$5 +17%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $27 +$5 +19%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $20 +$7 +33%
1. FC Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5 Dec 13 $10 +$10 +100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-12-10? Dec 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Villarreal CF vs. FC København: O/U 2.5 Dec 10 $62 +$28 +45%
FC Barcelona vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 2.5 Dec 10 $10 +$3 +32%
FC Bayern München vs. Sporting CP: O/U 2.5 Dec 09 $50 +$22 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $103 10m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $132 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $96 5h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $148 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $76 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $45 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $74 35h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 29¢ $13 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $69 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $42 2d
AC Milan vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $100 155d
AC Milan vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $19 155d
AC Milan vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 155d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $139 155d
Aston Villa FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $33 155d
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-01-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 155d
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-01-18? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 155d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $100 155d
Bologna FC 1909 vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $130 155d
Bologna FC 1909 vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $100 155d
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $63 155d
RB Leipzig vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $163 156d
RB Leipzig vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $119 156d
Chelsea FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $119 156d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-17? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 156d
Chelsea FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $100 156d
Villarreal CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $700 183d
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $240 183d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.22 · official $200.22 (match) · 70 history records