Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:23:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b3f…a624 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$3 (-59%) realized −$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -77% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -79% what you keep after slip
Net edge-79%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$2
sports 40% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-79.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -8.9% -17.5% 0% 0% -17.5%
≤30d 1 -8.9% -17.5% 0% 0% -17.5%
≤90d 4 -77.2% -79.4% 0% 0% -79.0%
all 4 -77.2% -79.4% 0% 0% -79.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -79.4% 0% -79.0%
10% -81.4% 0% -81.0%
15% -83.2% 0% -82.9%
20% -84.8% 0% -84.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -77% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -77% · $-wt -77% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage40d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Under 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -9%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 1¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ $1 36d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 39d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 6 history records