Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:20:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b42…90fb sports 928 markets active 3h ago coverage 37d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$295 (-5%) realized −$294 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate50%464W / 463L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day61.6pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$78
14 days−$229
30 days−$363
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$354
other 16% −$102
crypto 0% −$6
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -34.7% -41.0% 39% 22% -22.2%
≤30d 751 -24.1% -31.3% 49% 22% -18.1%
≤90d 927 -21.5% -29.0% 50% 19% -18.1%
all 927 -21.5% -29.0% 50% 19% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.0% 19% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -35.8% 4% -26.0%
15% -42.0% 3% -33.1%
20% -47.7% 2% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$294
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses464 / 463
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions1
Markets (closed)927 / 928
History coverage37d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day61.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 927 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D Passion Academy 15¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 159 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 18 $8 +$1 +12%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Nancy Lee Jun 18 $7 +$1 +7%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 18 $7 −$7 -99%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 18 $7 −$7 -99%
ITF Sapporo: Ying Zhang vs Miyu Nishiwaki Jun 18 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $7 +$3 +36%
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? Jun 18 $7 +$2 +34%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 18 $7 +$2 +26%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $7 $0 +6%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 18 $7 +$4 +50%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $7 +$4 +60%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Jun 18 $7 +$2 +26%
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Blaze (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Jun 18 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5) Jun 18 $7 +$2 +23%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $8 +$1 +12%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5) Jun 18 $7 −$7 -99%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 18 $8 +$1 +7%
ITF Irvine: Tia Messerli vs Monika Ekstrand Jun 18 $7 +$1 +7%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi Jun 17 $7 $0 +6%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Milica Stosovic vs Marianne Argyrokastriti Jun 17 $7 −$3 -40%
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu Jun 17 $7 +$1 +12%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $7 $0 +5%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +36%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 17 $7 +$2 +23%
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $7 $0 -2%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Jun 17 $7 +$1 +8%
ITF Monastir: Isabella De Micco Padula vs Elena Jamshidi Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
ITF Tauste: Andrea Palazon Lacasa vs Yasmine Mansouri Jun 16 $7 $0 +5%
ITF Milano: Giorgio Tabacco vs Raffaele Ciurnelli Jun 16 $9 −$2 -25%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Quinn Vandecasteele Jun 16 $9 −$2 -21%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 16 $8 −$1 -12%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
ITF Klosters: Petra Sedlackova vs Urszula Radwanska Jun 16 $9 −$2 -18%
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Paula Cembranos Jun 16 $8 $0 +6%
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Peru Bayo Jun 16 $8 −$1 -7%
ITF Klosters: Anais Gabriel vs Mara Guth Jun 16 $7 +$1 +12%
ITF Klosters: Matteo Covato vs Noah Karma Jun 16 $8 −$1 -14%
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu Jun 16 $7 $0 -3%
ITF Tokyo: Renta Tokuda vs Ryota Tanuma Jun 16 $8 −$1 -9%
ITF Sapporo: Gaeul Jang vs Sera Nishimoto Jun 16 $8 −$1 -12%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) Jun 16 $7 +$2 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr SELL ex-MANA eSports 100¢ $9 2h
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr BUY Passion Academy 15¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr BUY Passion Academy 14¢ $0 5h
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr BUY Passion Academy 14¢ $0 5h
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr BUY ex-MANA eSports 79¢ $7 7h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Nancy Lee BUY Ksenia Zaytseva 93¢ $7 8h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster $0 8h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster $0 8h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster $0 8h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 62¢ $7 8h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 64¢ $7 8h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 80¢ $7 9h
ITF Sapporo: Ying Zhang vs Miyu Nishiwaki BUY Miyu Nishiwaki $1 13h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 14h
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Colombia? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 14h
ITF Sapporo: Ying Zhang vs Miyu Nishiwaki BUY Ying Zhang 84¢ $7 14h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $1 16h
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 74¢ $7 16h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $7 16h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 16h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 79¢ $7 16h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5) BUY Athletics 81¢ $7 16h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana $1 17h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 66¢ $7 18h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 83¢ $7 18h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 79¢ $7 18h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 62¢ $7 19h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 82¢ $7 19h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 81¢ $7 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2298 history records