Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:57:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9B 0x9b44…2280 sports 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$290 (+15%) realized +$288 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%27W / 30L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days+$85
14 days+$193
30 days+$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$234
other 10% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +9.7% -0.8% 45% 45% +2.2%
≤30d 57 -0.8% -10.2% 47% 47% +1.4%
≤90d 57 -0.8% -10.2% 47% 47% +1.4%
all 57 -0.8% -10.2% 47% 47% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 47% +1.4%
10% -18.8% 42% -8.3%
15% -26.6% 42% -17.2%
20% -33.8% 39% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$24 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$288
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses27 / 30
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage16d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $21 +$50 +242%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $14 +$9 +63%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $14 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $35 −$34 -97%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $14 +$46 +321%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $10 +$14 +136%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$54 +105%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $21 +$15 +73%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $21 +$20 +99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $41 +$31 +75%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $16 +$10 +64%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $163 +$96 +59%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $82 −$50 -61%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 −$5 -52%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $51 +$9 +18%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $16 −$15 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $24 −$24 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 +$33 +228%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 +$19 +63%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $14 +$5 +37%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $103 +$144 +140%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $110 +$59 +53%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $62 −$60 -97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $92 −$90 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $36 +$26 +73%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $31 +$4 +14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $12 −$12 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $25 −$24 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $36 +$83 +230%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $87 +$61 +70%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $15 +$11 +74%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $81 +$9 +11%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $15 +$22 +143%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 60¢ $14 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 27h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 27h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 36h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $14 36h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $14 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 47¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 38¢ $24 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 15¢ $10 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $105 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 70¢ $36 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 39¢ $21 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 63¢ $41 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 30¢ $21 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 59¢ $72 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 32¢ $41 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 24¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 36¢ $13 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 29¢ $11 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 13¢ $10 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 22¢ $21 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 26¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 50¢ $41 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $31 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.98 · official $16.98 (match) · 116 history records