Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:11:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

9B 0x9b47…34d3 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$77 (+11%) realized +$271 · open −$194

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip

Net edge-42%after slip

Net WR20%break-even

Win rate20%1W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$81per market

Trades / day1.7pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit11%portable

Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +20%

net ROI/market (all)-42.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+60.3%	+45.0%	50%	50%	+44.0%
≤30d	5	-35.9%	-42.0%	20%	20%	+7.4%
≤90d	5	-35.9%	-42.0%	20%	20%	+7.4%
all	5	-35.9%	-42.0%	20%	20%	+7.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-42.0%	20%	+7.4%
10%	-47.5%	20%	-2.9%
15%	-52.6%	20%	-12.2%
20%	-57.3%	20%	-20.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +19% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -36% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$175 vs −$26 · ×6.81 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$114

Realized+$271

Unrealized−$194

Win rate (resolved)20%

Wins / losses1 / 4

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions4

Markets (closed)5 / 9

History coverage9d

Avg bet$81

Trades / day1.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	No	64¢	100¢	$73	$114	+$41 (+56%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	No	43¢	0¢	$160	$0	−$159 (-100%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	16¢	0¢	$27	$0	−$27 (-100%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	36¢	0¢	$49	$0	−$49 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$141	+$175	+124%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$146	−$5	-3%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia?	Jun 17	$3	−$3	-97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia?	Jun 17	$67	−$65	-98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia?	Jun 17	$31	−$30	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	16¢	$27	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	54¢	$28	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	44¢	$10	2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	36¢	$4	2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	64¢	$20	2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$30	2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	36¢	$46	2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	64¢	$54	2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	43¢	$153	2h
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5	BUY Over	44¢	$141	7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	69¢	$142	7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	70¢	$146	8h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia?	BUY Yes	5¢	$3	9d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia?	BUY Yes	17¢	$36	9d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia?	BUY Yes	16¢	$31	9d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia?	BUY Yes	17¢	$31	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.34 · official $114.34 (match) · 17 history records