Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:02:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9B 0x9b47…43c1 crypto 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 224d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,905per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$18
other 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 9 +0.6% -8.9% 78% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 0% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$11 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage224d
Avg bet$1,905
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $61 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 09 $1 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 09 $28 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 09 $29 $0 +1%
Based FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 09 $59 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February? Mar 05 $56 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? Mar 05 $59 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Feb 24 $114 −$3 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 26 $18,625 −$19 -0%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Jan 20 $19 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $61 1h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $1 88d
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $28 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $29 104d
Based FDV above $3B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $59 106d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $56 117d
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $59 118d
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? SELL No 96¢ $112 119d
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $114 129d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $18,607 148d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $18,625 148d
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? BUY Yes 96¢ $9 223d
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 224d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.49 · official $60.49 (match) · 20 history records